Journal articles: 'GSA Training Center (U.S.)' – Grafiati (2024)

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AbstractFounded in 1986, an educational joint venture between Johns Hopkins University and Nanjing University has survived the trials of culture, geopolitics, and nature. As it entered its third decade, the Hopkins-Nanjing Center for Chinese and American Studies offered the first ever Sino-U. S. joint master's degree. This article traces the evolution of this bi-national institution, exploring its role in international relations, cultural exchange, economic globalization, and China's postMao drive toward modernization. A risk-taking Chinese university president, his American counterpart, a Chinese-American scientist who served as cultural mediator, the Tiananmen crisis, the SARS epidemic, Chinese and American students seeking to advance careers and mutual understanding–all these factors play a role in the story. Though continuous in many ways with early twentieth-century exchanges, the Hopkins-Nanjing Center diverges from the former pattern by being an equal partnership. This difference reflects China's growing economic and political power as well as a different American sensibility. In addition to reflecting the state of bilateral relations, the Center has contributed to relations through the symbolism of its survival and hopes, over the long term, to contribute by training future leaders in the government, business, and civil society sectors of the two societies.

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Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of biofeedback on control of nasalization in individuals with typical speech. Method Forty-eight individuals with typical speech attempted to increase and decrease vowel nasalization. During training, stimuli consisted of consonant-vowel-consonant (CVC) tokens with the center vowels /a/ or /i/ in either a nasal or nonnasal phonemic context (e.g., /mim/ vs. /bib/), depending on the participant’s training group. Half of the participants had access to augmentative visual feedback during training, which was based on a less-invasive acoustic, accelerometric measure of vowel nasalization—the Horii oral–nasal coupling (HONC) score. During pre- and posttraining assessments, acoustically based nasalance was also measured from the center vowels /a/, /i/, /æ/, and /u/ of CVCs in both nasal and nonnasal contexts. Results Linear regressions indicated that both phonemic contexts (nasal or nonnasal) and the presence of augmentative visual feedback during training were significant predictors for changes in nasalance scores from pre- to posttraining. Conclusions Participants were able to change the nasalization of their speech following a training period with HONC biofeedback. Future work is necessary to examine the effect of such training in individuals with velopharyngeal dysfunction.

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Abstract The United States Coast Guard conducted a review of the National Strike Force’s alignment with the Coast Guard organization following direction from Admiral Papp, Commandant of the Coast Guard, for a “Stem to Stern” review of all Deployable Specialized Forces. The Deployable Specialized Force program and its support structure has made significant progress building and sustaining a highly specialized community. Some of these successes include the Incident Management Assist Team. The full purpose and integration of all Deployable Specialized Force units has still not completely achieved full operational capability. One of the recommended courses of action for Coast Guard Deployable Specialized Forces is to maintain proficiency and provide value across the Coast Guard’s mission spectrum included: Establish Centers of Expertise for disaster/incident response with functionality to include standardization teams, external assessment, and Tactics, Techniques and Policy integration. The review concluded that a separate unit should be established to conduct third party assessment of the National Strike Forces’ three Strike Teams. As a result, the National Strike Force Center of Expertise was created under the oversight of the Coast Guard Force Readiness Command. This paper will review the reasons for creation of the National Strike Force Center of Expertise and why it was placed under the Coast Guard Force Readiness Command as a detachment of Training Center Yorktown. Several functional statements of the National Strike Force Center of Expertise will be presented regarding managing environmental response and equipment standardization among the Strike Teams and how the National Strike Force Center of Expertise concept of operations will support future progress for the NSF mission.

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Abstract With a growing need for specialized training for direct caregivers and support staff of persons with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) affected by dementia, the National Task Group on Developmental Disabilities and Dementia Practices (NTG) developed a comprehensive evidence-informed Dementia Capable Care Training (DCCT). To overcome the challenge of the training length and cost, and to extend its dissemination, the Sonoran Center developed a shorter version of the NTG-DCCT while retaining its core components, and implemented it in seven cities in the U. S. Southwest (N = 368). The pre- and post-training evaluation (n =260) demonstrated that the short version of the NTG-DCCT is effective in significantly improving participants' knowledge and/or confidence in dementia capable care. The follow-up semi-structured interviews of participants (n = 7) provide some insights.

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AbstractAlthough various studies have shown that robotic-assisted total hip arthroplasty (RATHA) is associated with improved component positioning to plan and reduced intraoperative complications, there is still a learning curve for implementation even for experienced surgeons. This study assessed this learning curve for fellows during their training year, by comparing the accuracy and precision of acetabular component positioning, leg length, component offset, and center of rotation between manual THA (MTHA) and RATHA. Six fresh-frozen lower extremity specimens were utilized for surgical procedures performed by two adult reconstruction fellows who were halfway through their training year. The specimens were randomized to undergo one side with manual instrumentation and the contralateral side with RATHA. The final intraoperative surgical plan for rotation, cup orientation, leg length, and offset values were recorded and compared with the actual values measured by computed tomography (CT) scan. Using pre- and postoperative CT scans, the RATHA group was then compared with the MTHA group for accuracy and precision to plan. To assess differences in standard deviations of each measurement, 2-variances testing was performed using α = 0.05. To assess differences in central tendencies of each measurement for each group, Mann–Whitney U tests were performed using α = 0.05. RATHA exhibited significantly (p < 0.05) greater accuracy and precision to plan compared with MTHA in shell version (2.3 ± 1.2° vs. 7.8 ± 4.6°), shell inclination (2.1 ± 1.2° vs. 7.2 ± 3.2), and leg length discrepancy (0.8 ± 0.8 mm vs. 6.4 ± 3.7 mm). Center of head rotation was reported for each anatomical plane. There was no statistical difference in distance from original center of head rotation when considering the superoinferior, mediolateral, and anteroposterior planes as well as when combined as a total deviation in all three planes. The use of CT-guided preoperative planning and intraoperative robotic technology can help surgeons achieve desired implant placement. Results from this study indicate that with limited RATHA experience, surgeons in fellowship training were able to place THA components more accurately and precisely to plan for several important parameters compared with MTHA, namely shell inclination, shell anteversion, and leg length discrepancy.

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Mamoru Tobisu received his PhD from Osaka University under the direction of Prof. Shinji Murai (2001). During his PhD studies, he was a visiting scientist (1999) with Prof. Gregory C. Fu at MIT. Following a period as a scientist at the Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (2001–2005), he started his academic career at Osaka University in 2005 as an assistant professor with Prof. Naoto Chatani. He was then appointed as an associate professor at the Center for Atomic and Molecular Technologies at Osaka University (2011) and was promoted to full professor at the Department of Applied Chemistry of Osaka University (2017). He received the Thieme Chemistry Journals Award (2008), the Chemical Society of Japan Award for Young Chemists (2009), the Young Scientists’ Award, a Commendation for Science and Technology from the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2012), the Merck-Banyu Lectureship Award (2012), Thomson Reuters Research Front Award (2016), and the Mukaiyama Award (2018). Naoto Chatani received his PhD in 1984 under Professors Noboru Sonoda and Shinji Murai. In 1984, he joined the Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research at Osaka University as an Assistant Professor in the laboratory of Professor Terukiyo Hanafusa. After postdoctoral studies (1988–1989 under Professor Scott E. Denmark at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign), he moved back to Osaka University and was promoted to the rank of Associate Professor (1992) and to Full Professor (2003). He is a recipient of The Chemical Society of Japan Award for Young Chemists (1990), The Green & Sustainable Chemistry Award from the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2005), the Nagoya Silver Medal (2013), The Chemical Society of Japan Award (2017), a Humboldt Research Award (2017), a Clarivate Analytics Highly Cited Researcher (2017) and will be a recipient of an Arthur C. Cope Scholar Award (2018). Victor Snieckus was born in Kaunas, Lithuania and spent his childhood in Germany during World War II. He received training at U. Alberta, Canada, (B.Sc.), U. California, Berkeley (M.Sc. D.S. Noyce), and U. Oregon (Ph.D. Virgil Boekelheide). He returned to his adopted country for postdoctoral studies (National Research Council, Ottawa, Ted Edwards). Appointments: U. of Waterloo, Assistant (1966) to Professor (1979); Monsanto/NRC Industrial Research Chair, 1992–1998; Queen’s University, Inaugural Bader Chair in Organic Chemistry (1998–2009); Bader Chair Emeritus and Director, Snieckus Innovations, 2009-. Selective awards: A.C. Cope Scholar (2001, one of 5 Canadians), Order of the Grand Duke Gediminas (2002, from the President of Lithuania), Arvedson-Schlenk (2003, Gesellschaft Deutscher Chemiker), Bernard Belleau (2005, Canadian Society for Chemistry), Givaudan-Karrer Medal (2008, U. Zurich), Honoris causa (2009, Technical U. Tallinn, Estonia), Global Lithuanian Award (2012), Yoshida Lectureship (2017). He hopes that he has only temporarily discontinued playing hockey and wishes also to return to the clarinet.

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BackgroundWhile insertion of CVC (central venous catheter) is common, it is an intricate procedure and not risk-free. Traditionally, inexperienced residents learn to insert CVC on real patients and thus can put patients' life at risk. One way to reduce medical errors is to use high-fidelity simulation for training tomorrow's practitioners on ultrasound-guided CVC insertion.ObjectiveTo evaluate the efficacy of medical simulation based learning course on knowledge and skills improvement on ultrasound-guided CVC insertion.MethodsA pre-assessment was performed through a pre-test and hands-on skill assessment for central line insertion under U/S guidance (Internal Jugular, Subclavian or Femoral lines) utilizing a standardized checklist. All candidates then attended one day course that included theoretical and hands-on simulation training using phantoms. A post-test and hands-on assessment was performed at the end of the day.ResultsTwenty residents from Internal Medicine and Paediatrics were enrolled in the study at King Fahad Medical City Simulation Center. There was significant improvement in the knowledge based training: 90% showed significant increase in their MCQ scores (p<0.001), 10% had equal scores and none showed decline in their scores. For the hands-on skills: All 20 candidates showed significant improvement in their skills (p<0.001).ConclusionA one day simulation course on CVC insertion under ultrasound guidance significantly improves the knowledge and skills for residents in training programs.RecommendationsSuch courses and other similar should be compulsory for all Residents training programs as it is called safe training.

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Students of Elementary School Teacher Education programs must be able to have higher-order thinking skills (HOTS) so that they can train students to have HOTS through learning activities created when they have become elementary school teachers. This study aims to explain students' high-level thinking skills in solving HOTS-oriented questions in Instructional Evaluation courses. This study uses qualitative research methods with data collection techniques using cognitive test instruments in the form of descriptions. Data analysis techniques use simple descriptive statistics. The results showed the level of thinking ability of students in answering HOTS practice questions still needed improvement. Students who have high learning abilities are better at answering HOTS-oriented questions compared to students in the medium and low categories. Recommendations for future research are required learning modules that can facilitate learning activities that lead to HOTS so that students are skilled in answering and making HOTS-oriented practice questions for elementary school students when they become a teacher. References Abdullah, Abdul Halim; Mokhtar, Mahani; Halim, Noor Dayana Abd; Ali, Dayana Farzeeha; Tahir, Lokman Mohd; Kohar, U. H. A. (2017). Mathematics Teachers’ Level of Knowledge and Practice on the Implementation of Higher-Order Thinking Skills (HOTS). EURASIA Journal of Mathematics, Science and Technology Education, 13(1), 3–17. https://doi.org/10.12973/eurasia.2017.00601a Altun, M., & Akkaya, R. (2014). Mathematics teachers’ comments on PISA math questions and our country’s students’ low achievement levels. Hacettepe Üniversitesi Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 29(1), 19–34. Bakry, & Md Nor Bakar. (2015). The process of thinking among Junior High School students in solving HOTS question. International Journal of Evaluation and Research in Education (IJERE), 4(3), 138–145. Budsankom, P; Sawangboon, T; Damrongpanit, S; Chuensirimongkol, J. (2015). Factors affecting higher order thinking skills of students: A meta-analytic structural equation modeling study. Educational Research and Review, 10(19), 2639–2652. doi:10.5897/err2015.2371 Chinedu, C. C., Olabiyi, O. S., & Kamin, Y. Bin. (2015). Strategies for improving higher order thinking skills in teaching and learning of design and technology education. Journal of Technical Educationand Training, 7(2), 35–43. Retrieved from http://penerbit.uthm.edu.my/ojs/index.php/JTET/article/view/1081/795 Didis, M. G., Erbas, A. K., Cetinkaya, B., Cakiroglu, E., & Alacaci, C. (2016). Exploring prospective secondary mathematics teachers’ interpretation of student thinking through analysing students’work in modelling. Mathematics Education Research Journal, 28(3), 349–378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13394-016-0170-6 Duan, J. (2012). Research about Technology Enhanced Higher-Order Thinking. IEEE Computer Society, (Iccse), 687–689. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICCSE.2012.6295167 Edwards, L. (2016). EDUCATION, TECHNOLOGY AND HIGHER ORDER THINKING SKILLS Lucy Edwards, 1–18. Ersoy, E., & Başer, N. (2014). The Effects of Problem-based Learning Method in Higher Education on Creative Thinking. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 116, 3494–3498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.01.790 Hugerat, M., & Kortam, N. (2014). Improving higher order thinking skills among freshmen by teaching science through inquiry. Eurasia Journal of Mathematics, Science and Technology Education, 10(5), 447–454. https://doi.org/10.12973/eurasia.2014.1107a Kaur, C., Singh, S., Kaur, R., Singh, A., & Singh, T. S. M. (2018). Developing a Higher Order Thinking Skills Module for Weak ESL Learners, 11(7), 86–100. https://doi.org/10.5539/elt.v11n7p86 King, F. J., Goodson, L., & Rohani, F. (1998). Higher order thinking skills. Publication of the Educational Services Program, Now Known as the Center for Advancement of Learning and Assessment. Obtido de: Www.Cala.Fsu.Edu, 1–176. Retrieved from http://www.cala.fsu.edu/files/higher_order_thinking_skills.pdf Kusuma, M. D., Rosidin, U., Abdurrahman, A., & Suyatna, A. (2017). The Development of Higher Order Thinking Skill (Hots) Instrument Assessment In Physics Study. IOSR Journal of Research & Method in Education (IOSRJRME), 07(01), 26–32. https://doi.org/10.9790/7388-0701052632 Marzano, R. J. (1993). How classroom teachers approach the teaching of thinking. Theory Into Practice, 32(3), 154–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/00405849309543591 McLoughlin, D., & Mynard, J. (2009). An analysis of higher order thinking in online discussions. Innovations in Education and Teaching International, 46(2), 147–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/14703290902843778 Miri, B., David, B. C., & Uri, Z. (2007). Purposely teaching for the promotion of higher-order thinking skills: A case of critical thinking. Research in Science Education, 37(4), 353–369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11165-006-9029-2 Nagappan, R. (2001). Language teaching and the enhancement of higher-order thinking skills. Anthology Series-Seameo Regional Language Centre, (April 2000), 190–223. Retrieved from http://nsrajendran.tripod.com/Papers/RELC2000A.pdf Nguyen, T. (2018). Teachers ’ Capacity of Instruction for Developing Higher – Order Thinking Skills for Upper Secondary Students – A Case Study in Teaching Mathematics in Vietnam, 10(1), 8–19. Puchta, H. (2007). More than little parrots: Developing young learners’ speaking skills. Www.Herbertpuchta.Com. Raiyn, J., & Tilchin, O. (2015). Higher-Order Thinking Development through Adaptive Problem-based Learning. Journal of Education and Training Studies, 3(4), 93–100. https://doi.org/10.11114/jets.v3i4.769 Retnawati, H., Djidu, H., Kartianom, K., Apino, E., & Anazifa, R. D. (2018). Teachers’ knowledge about higher-order thinking skills and its learning strategy. Problem of Education in the 21st Century, 76(2), 215–230. Retrieved from http://oaji.net/articles/2017/457-1524597598.pdf Snyder, L. G., & Snyder, M. J. (2008). Teaching critical thinking and problem solving skills. The Delta Pi Epsilon Journal, L(2), 90–99. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009682924511 Stahnke, R., Schueler, S., & Roesken-Winter, B. (2016). Teachers’ perception, interpretation, and decision-making: a systematic review of empirical mathematics education research. ZDM - Mathematics Education, 48(1–2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-016-0775-y Sulaiman, T., Muniyan, V., Madhvan, D., Hasan, R., & Rahim, S. S. A. (2017). Implementation of higher order thinking skills in teaching of science: A case study in Malaysia. International Research Journal of Education and Sciences (IRJES), 1(1), 2550–2158. Retrieved from http://www.masree.info/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/20170226-IRJES-VOL-1-ISSUE-1-ARTICLE-1.pdf Tan, S. Y., & Halili, S. H. (2015). Effective teaching of higher-order thinking (HOT) in education. The Online Journal of Distance Education and E-Learning, 3(2), 41–47. Thomas, A., & Thorne, G. (2009). How to increase higher level thinking | center for development and learning. The Center for Learning and Development Blog. Retrieved from http://www.cdl.org/articles/how-to-increase-high-order-thinking/ Thompson, T. (2008). Mathematics teachers’ interpretation of higher-order thinking in Bloom’s taxonomy. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 3(2), 96–109. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.318.5856.1534 Watson, J. M., Collis, K. F., Callingham, R. A., & Moritz, J. B. (1995). A model for assessing higher order thinking in statistics. Educational Research and Evaluation,(Vol.1). https://doi.org/10.1080/1380361950010303 Zohar, A. (2013). Challenges in wide scale implementation efforts to foster higher order thinking (HOT) in science education across a whole school system. Thinking Skills and Creativity, 10, 233–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tsc.2013.06.002 Zohar, A., & Schwartzer, N. (2005). Assessing teachers’ pedagogical knowledge in the context of teaching higher-order thinking. International Journal of Science Education, 27(13), 1595–1620. https://doi.org/10.1080/09500690500186592 Zulkpli, Z., Mohamed, M., & Abdullah, A. H. (2017). Assessing mathematics teachers’ knowledge in teaching thinking skills. Sains Humanika, 9(1–4), 83–87. https://doi.org/10.11113/sh.v9n1-4.1129

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The challenge for rural communities to provide quality education for early childhood in Indonesia is difficult. National politics, policies, and economic and cultural conditions affect the Early Childhood Education system, and Indonesia is a large multicultural country, so, even the quality of education is difficult. This study aims to look at the quality of children's education in Pandalungan. Using qualitative methods with ethnographic design, data collection techniques using interviews, observation, and documentation. The results showed that educational institutions for children in urban areas can be categorized quite high. However, for early childhood education services in Desa Sukorambi Pandalungan, the quality is quite poor. Research suggestions are the need for follow-up related to social, economic, cultural and environmental factors at the level of Pandalungan community awareness of early childhood education. Keywords: Early Childhood, Learning Quality, Pandalungan Community References: Bernal, R., & Ramírez, S. M. (2019). Improving the quality of early childhood care at scale: The effects of “From Zero to Forever.” World Development, 118, 91–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.02.012 Bers, M. U., González-González, C., & Armas-Torres, M. B. (2019). Coding as a playground: Promoting positive learning experiences in childhood classrooms. Computers and Education, 138, 130–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2019.04.013 Biersteker, L., Dawes, A., Hendricks, L., & Tredoux, C. (2016). Center-based early childhood care and education program quality: A South African study. Early Childhood Research Quarterly, 36, 334–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecresq.2016.01.004 Burchinal, M. (2018). Measuring Early Care and Education Quality. Child Development Perspectives, 12(1), 3–9. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdep.12260 Church, A., & Bateman, A. (2019). Methodology and professional development: Conversation Analytic Role-play Method (CARM) for early childhood education. Journal of Pragmatics, 143(xxxx), 242–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pragma.2019.01.022 Ciolan, L. E. (2013). Play to Learn, Learn to Play. Creating Better Opportunities for Learning in Early Childhood. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 76, 186–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.04.096 Correia, N., Camilo, C., Aguiar, C., & Amaro, F. (2019). Children’s right to participate in early childhood education settings: A systematic review. Children and Youth Services Review, 100, 76–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2019.02.031 Cycyk, L. M., & Hammer, C. S. (2018). Beliefs, values, and practices of Mexican immigrant families towards language and learning in toddlerhood: Setting the foundation for early childhood education. Early Childhood Research Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecresq.2018.09.009 Dick, C. & C. (2009). The Sistematic Design Of Instruction. New Jersey: Upper Saddle River. Grindal, T., Bowne, J. B., Yoshikawa, H., Schindler, H. S., Duncan, G. J., Magnuson, K., & Shonkoff, J. P. (2016). The added impact of parenting education in early childhood education programs: A meta-analysis. Children and Youth Services Review, 70, 238–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2016.09.018 Herbers, J. E., Cutuli, J. J., Jacobs, E. L., Tabachnick, A. R., & Kichline, T. (2019). Early childhood risk and later adaptation: A person-centered approach using latent profiles. Journal of Applied Developmental Psychology, 62(January), 66–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appdev.2019.01.003 Hunkin, E. (2018). Whose quality? The (mis)uses of quality reform in early childhood and education policy. Journal of Education Policy, 33(4), 443–456. https://doi.org/10.1080/02680939.2017.1352032 Johson, J. E, & Roopnarine, J. L. (2011). Pendidikan anak usia dini dalam berbagai pendekatan. Jakarta: Kencana Prenada Media Group. Lucas, F. M. M. (2017). The Game as an Early Childhood Learning Resource for Intercultural Education. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 237(June 2016), 908–913. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2017.02.127 Atwi Suparman. (2012). Desain Intruksional Modern. Jakarta: Erlangga. Mapiare, A. (2013). Tipe-tipe Metode Riset Kualitatif Untuk Eksplanasi Sosial Budaya Dan Bimbingan Konseling. Malang: Elang Emas & Prodi Bimbingan Dan Konseling Fakultas Ilmu Pendidikan Universitas Negeri Malang. Milner, K. M., Bhopal, S., Black, M., Dua, T., Gladstone, M., Hamadani, J., … Lawn, J. E. (2019). Counting outcomes, coverage and quality for early child development programmes. Archives of Disease in Childhood, 104, S3–S12. https://doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2018-315430 Morrison, G. S. (2012). Dasar-dasar Pendidikan Anak Usia Dini. Jakarta: Indeks. Nutbrown, C. (2011). Key Concepts in Early Childhood Education and Care (2nd ed.). London: SAGE Publication Ltd. Perpres. Pelaksanaan Pencapaian Tujuan Pembangunan Berkelanjutan. , 6 Peraturan Presiden RI § (2017). Puspita, W. A. (2013). Multikulturalisme dalam Pendidikan Anak Usia Dini. Jurnal Ilmiah VISI P2TK PAUDNI, 8(2), 144–152. Raikes, A., Sayre, R., Davis, D., Anderson, K., Hyson, M., Seminario, E., & Burton, A. (2019). The Measuring Early Learning Quality & Outcomes initiative: purpose, process and results. Early Years, 39(4), 360–375. https://doi.org/10.1080/09575146.2019.1669142 Satrio Roefandi, P. (2019). Keluarga Pendalungan, Keluarga Berbasis Budaya Madura Atau Jawa? 10 Th Psychofest Conference, (March), 316–324. https://doi.org/10.31227/osf.io/v8g5b Stokoe, E. (2014). The Conversation Analytic Role-play Method (CARM): a method for training communication skills as an alternative to simulated role-play. Res. Lang. Soc. Interact, 47(3), 255–265. Sutarto, A. (2006). Sekilas Tentang Masyarakat Pandalungan. Jelajah Budaya 2006, 1–7. Suyadi. (2010). 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Background: Although sleep has been identified as an important modifiable risk factor for sports injury, the effect of decreased sleep on sports injuries in adolescents is poorly studied. Purpose: To systematically review published literature to examine if a lack of sleep is associated with sports injuries in adolescents and to delineate the effects of chronic versus acute lack of sleep. Methods: PubMed and EMBASE databases were systematically searched for studies reporting statistics regarding the relationship between sleep and sports injury in adolescents aged <19 years published between 1/1/1997 and 12/21/2017. From included studies, the following information was extracted: bibliographic and demographic information, reported outcomes related to injury and sleep, and definitions of injury and decreased sleep. Additionally, a NOS (Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) assessment and an evaluation of the OCEM (Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine) level of evidence for each study was conducted to assess each study’s individual risk of bias, and the risk of bias across all studies. Results: Of 907 identified articles, 7 met inclusion criteria. Five studies reported that adolescents who chronically slept poorly were at a significantly increased likelihood of experiencing a sports or musculoskeletal injury. Two studies reported on acute sleep behaviors. One reported a significant positive correlation between acutely poor sleep and injury, while the other study reported no significant correlation. In our random effects model, adolescents who chronically slept poorly were more likely to be injured than those who slept well (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.37, p = 0.03). OCEM criteria assessment showed that all but one study (a case-series) were of 2b level of evidence—which is the highest level of evidence possible for studies which were not randomized control trials or systematic reviews. NOS assessment was conducted for all six cohort studies to investigate each study’s individual risk of bias. Five out of six of these studies received between 4 to 6 stars, categorizing them as having a moderate risk of bias. One study received 7 stars, categorizing it as having a low risk of bias. NOS assessment revealed that the most consistent source of bias was in ascertainment of exposure: all studies relied on self-reported data regarding sleep hours rather than a medical or lab record of sleep hours. Conclusions: Chronic lack of sleep in adolescents is associated with greater risk of sports and musculoskeletal injuries. Current evidence cannot yet definitively determine the effect of acute lack of sleep on injury rates. Our results thus suggest that adolescents who either chronically sleep less than 8 hours per night, or have frequent night time awakenings, are more likely to experience sports or musculoskeletal injuries. [Figure: see text][Figure: see text][Table: see text][Table: see text][Table: see text] References used in tables and full manuscript Barber Foss KD, Myer GD, Hewett TE. Epidemiology of basketball, soccer, and volleyball injuries in middle-school female athletes. Phys Sportsmed. 2014;42(2):146-153. Adirim TA, Cheng TL. Overview of injuries in the young athlete. Sports Med. 2003;33(1):75-81. Valovich McLeod TC, Decoster LC, Loud KJ, et al. National Athletic Trainers’ Association position statement: prevention of pediatric overuse injuries. J Athl Train. 2011;46(2):206-220. Milewski MD, Skaggs DL, Bishop GA, et al. Chronic lack of sleep is associated with increased sports injuries in adolescent athletes. J Pediatr Orthop. 2014;34(2):129-133. Wheaton AG, Olsen EO, Miller GF, Croft JB. Sleep Duration and Injury-Related Risk Behaviors Among High School Students--United States, 2007-2013. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2016;65(13):337-341. Paruthi S, Brooks LJ, D’Ambrosio C, et al. Consensus Statement of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine on the Recommended Amount of Sleep for Healthy Children: Methodology and Discussion. Journal of clinical sleep medicine: JCSM: official publication of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. 2016;12(11):1549-1561. Watson NF, Badr MS, Belenky G, et al. Joint Consensus Statement of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine and Sleep Research Society on the Recommended Amount of Sleep for a Healthy Adult: Methodology and Discussion. Sleep. 2015;38(8):1161-1183. Juliff LE, Halson SL, Hebert JJ, Forsyth PL, Peiffer JJ. Longer Sleep Durations Are Positively Associated With Finishing Place During a National Multiday Netball Competition. J Strength Cond Res. 2018;32(1):189-194. Beedie CJ, Terry PC, Lane AM. 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The expected objectives in this study, namely; 1). Produce a Teaching Chart of Arts and Crafts with Local Content (Batak) as the Implementation of K13 for Middle Schools in Medan City in the form of an ISBN issued to publishers who have been registered as members of the Indonesian Publishers Association, namely FBS UNIMED PRESS, 2). Revealing the validation, practicality, and effectiveness of Teaching Materials for Arts and Crafts with Local Content (Batak) as a K13 Implementation for Middle Schools in Medan City, in this case the value of module validation is at 93.75% achievement is in the very valid category, the value of module practicality by students being at the level of achievement of 92.78% can be categorized as very practical, this shows that it is able to increase user interest in the learning process, and for student activities it is included in the active category because it is in the percentage of 79.37%, and 3). Produce a scientific publication in the International Proceedings carried out by LPPM Universitas Negeri Medan and scientific publications in the Sinta-4 National Accredited journal, namely Gorga: Journal of Fine Arts, Faculty of Language and Arts, Universitas Negeri Medan. It is hoped that the next researchers will develop character-based modules (soft skills) that are more focused on the attitude of increasing interest and learning outcomes in the Micro Learning process, Wood Carving Crafts, and other Subjects for Students of the Department of Fine Arts, Faculty of Language and Arts, Universitas Negeri Medan.Keywords: development, teaching materials, K13, Medan.AbstrakAdapun tujuan yang diharapkan dalam penelitian ini, yaitu; 1). Menghasilkan Bagan Ajar Seni Rupa dan Kerajinan Bermuatan Lokal (Batak) sebagai Implementasi K13 untuk Sekolah Menengah di Kota Medan dalam bentuk ber-ISBN yang diterbitkan pada penerbit yang sudah tercatat sebagai anggota Ikatan Penerbit Indonesia yaitu FBS UNIMED PRESS, 2). Mengungkap validasi, praktikalitas, dan efektivitas Bahan Ajar Seni Rupa dan Kerajinan bermuatan Lokal (Batak) sebagai Implementasi K13 untuk Sekolah Menengah di Kota Medan, dalam hal ini nilai validasi modul berada pada pencapaian 93.75% berada pada kategori sangat valid, nilai praktikalitas modul oleh mahasiswa berada pada tingkat pencapaian 92.78% dapat dikategorikan sangat praktis hal ini menunjukkan bahwa mampu untuk meningkatkan minat pengguna dalam proses pembelajaran, dan untuk aktivitas mahasiswa masuk ke dalam kategori aktif karena berada pada persentase 79.37%, dan 3). Menghasilkan sebuah publikasi ilmiah dalam Prosiding Internasional yang dilaksanakan oleh LPPM Universitas Negeri Medan dan publikasi ilmiah pada jurnal ter-Akreditasi Nasional Sinta-4 yaitu Gorga : Jurnal Seni Rupa Fakultas Bahasa dan Seni Universitas Negeri Medan. Diharapkan peneliti-peneliti berikutnya untuk mengembangkn modul berbasis karakter (soft skill) yang lebih ditekankan kepada attitude peningkatan minat dan hasil belajar dalam proses Pembelajaran Micro, Kriya Ukir Kayu, dan Mata Kuliah lainnya bagi Mahasiswa Jurusan Seni Rupa Fakultas Bahasa dan Seni Universitas Negeri Medan.Kata Kunci: pengembangan, bahan ajar, K13, Medan. Authors:Gamal Kartono : Universitas Negeri Medan Sugito : Universitas Negeri Medan Adek Cerah Kurnia Azis : Universitas Negeri Medan References:Andriansyah. (2017). 4 Tradisi Unik ini Hanya Bisa Kamu Temukan di Sumatera Utara. https://www.brilio.net/jalan-jalan/4-tradisi-unik-ini-hanya-bisa-kamu-temukan-di-sumatera-utara--170103b.html (diakses tanggal 15 Mei 2020).Arief, S. Sadiman, dkk. (1986). Seri Pustaka Teknologi Pendidikan No.6 Media Pendidikan. Pengertian, Pengembangan, dan Pemanfaatannya. Jakarta: CV Rajawali.Art, Hawkins. (2019). Letters from Art: Art Hawkins Standing Tall in the Shadow of Aldo Leopold. North Central Wisconsin: Orange Hat Publishing.Conrad, Phillip Kottak. (2000). Cultural Anthropology. Pennsylvania State University: McGraw-Hill.Dirjen Kurikulum. (1987). Surat Keputusan Menteri Pendidikan dan Kebudayaan Republik Indonesia dengan Nomor 0412/U/1987 tanggal 11 Juli 1987. https://www.google.com/search?client=avast-a-1&q=Dirjen+Kurikulum.+(1987).+Surat+Keputusan+Menteri+Pendidikan+dan+Kebudayaan+Republik+Indonesia+dengan+Nomor+0412%2FU%2F1987+tanggal+11+Juli+1987.&oq=Dirjen+Kurikulum.+(1987).+Surat+Keputusan+Menteri++Pendidikan+dan+Kebudayaan+Republik++Indonesia+dengan+Nomor+0412%2FU%2F1987+tanggal+11+Juli+1987.&aqs=avast..69i57.1385j0j15&ie=UTF-8 (diakses tanggal 25 Juni 2021).Depdiknas. (2008). Kurikulum Tingkat Satuan Pendidikan. Jakarta: Dikmenum Depdiknas.Haromain, Imam., Dkk. (2009). Pedoman dan Implementasi Pengembangan Kurikulum Tingkat Satuan Pendidikan MTs. Jawa Timur: Mapemda Kantor Wilayah.Kontan. (2020). Kerajinan. https://www.kontan.co.id/topik/kerajinan (diakses tanggal 14 Mei 2020).Mery, La. (1975). Komposisi Tari, Elemen-elemen Dasar: Diterjemahkan dari Buku Dance Composition: The Basic Elements oleh Soedarsono. Jakarta: Akademi Seni Tari Indonesia.Mahzuni, Dade., Mumuh, M., Z., & Ayu, S. (2017). Pengembangan Kerajinan Tangan Berbasis Kearifan Budaya di Pakenjeng Kabupaten Garut. Dharmakarya : Jurnal Aplikasi Ipteks untuk Masyarakat, (06)2, 101-105. https://doi.org/10.24198/dharmakarya.v6i2.14867.Muhajirin. ( _____ ). Dasar-Dasar Kerajinan. http://staffnew.uny.ac.id/upload/132102200/pendidikan/DASAR-DASAR+KERAJINAN.pdf (diakses anggal 14 Mei 2020).Muslih, Masnur. (2011). KTSP Pembelajaran Berbasis Kompetensi dan Kontekstual. Jakarta: Bumi Aksara.Paramita, N. C., Azmi, A., & Azis, A. C. K. (2020). Upaya Meningkatkan Hasil Belajar Menggambar Bentuk Buah Teknik Krayon. Journal of Education, Humaniora and Social Sciences (JEHSS), 3(1), 171-177. https://doi.org/10.34007/jehss.v3i1.245.Thiagarajan, Sivasailam, dkk. (1974). Instructional Development for Training Teachers of Exceptional Children. Washinton DC: National Center for Improvement Educational System.Wikipedia. (2020). 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Background. The article focuses on articulating the role of chromatic button accordion in the modern sociocultural system of Ukrainian musical art, based on the case of one leading school established in 1951 on the basis of Kharkiv National Kotlyarevskyj University of Arts. Objectives. The objective of the article is to provide an analysis of Kharkiv regional accordion school (since the second half of the 20th century to the present day), as well as its personalities using as an example five generations of performersteachers. Methodology of the study includes researching of the history and practice of performing chromatic button accordion (the fundamental works of M. Imkhanycjkyj, U. Loshkova, I. Snjedkov, A. Mirek, А. Stashevskyj) Results. After the invention of the chromatic button accordion a little over 100 years ago, it went from a primitive musical instrument satisfying everyday needs to one recognized on the professional concert stage. The status of the instrument has been changing hand in hand with its improvement and the creation of original repertoire. Now the chromatic button accordion is on par with other academic instruments recognized worldwide. Currently there are four chromatic button accordion schools in Ukraine - in Kyiv, Odessa, Lviv and Kharkiv. Kharkiv has been viewed as a regional center of development of the chromatic button accordion performing since early 20-ies of the 20th century. However, the original “Kharkiv school of performing” was fully established with the opening of the chromatic button accordion class at the orchestra department of the University in 1951. This event became final in the formation of the system of professional chromatic button accordionists and teachers preparation. It is as follows: music school, music college, conservatory. The founder of the chromatic button accordion class was L. M. Horenko (1925- 1989). Volodymyr Yakovych Podgornyj (1928-2010), an outstanding performer, composer and teacher, played the key role in the formation of Kharkiv original chromatic button accordion school. His unique compositional and performing style dramatically changed the teaching methodology, performance priorities, approaches to transcription and translation of works for an chromatic button accordion, the “harmonic mindset”. Volodymyr Yakovych contributed greatly to the creation of original chromatic button accordion repertoire which surpassed existing samples in its quality, giving a new direction to the chromatic button accordion development not only in Kharkiv, Ukraine but also abroad. Thus, L. M. Horenko and V. Y. Podgornyj became the first generation of chromatic button accordion teachers in Kharkiv National Kotlyarevskyj University of Arts. The second generation of teachers at the department including Podgornyj’s students O. I. Nasarenko and A. P. Ghaidenko used to uphold these principles, but they also brought additional details generally related to their inherent features of character. The representatives of the third generation at the department - professors O. V. Mishhenko and I. I. Snjedkov brought innovative characteristics to the general terms of the performing school. They have been known to pay attention to the logic of dramatic development, conciseness of musical forms, technical perfection, academicism, the balance of the emotional and rational performance components, the perfection of small intonation pieces. The fourth generation includes Andrij Ghetman who`d been working since 1995 to 2007, and Andrij Strilets who started his career in 1998. They both were students of Kharkiv chromatic button accordion school taught by Professor I. I. Snjedkov. Following general principles of “Podgornyj school”, those personalities deviate significantly from the original source. A. Ghetman’s performing is characterized by specific academicism both in the quality of performing and in selecting a concert repertoire. A. Strilets distinguishes by advanced orchestral thinking, focused work with the viewer, attention to a musical phrase structure, expressiveness and emotional completeness of performance. The fifth generation consists of Dmytro Zharikov (a soloist of the regional Philharmonic society) who has received a Master’s degree at Rostov Academy of Music named after. S. V. Rakhmaninov under the direction of the world-famous accordion player Yurij Shyshkin and Yurij Djjachenko (a student of O. I. Nasarenko) who teaches the conducting course. They have worked at the department since 2015. Conclusion. The modern chromatic button accordion through developing in the plane of professional instrumental performing, repeats the path of other famous academic musical instruments. Moreover, Kharkiv regional accordion school, being one of the leading development centers of the chromatic button accordion in Ukraine, has entered the value system of the 21st century culture. Its development and increasing authority in the world arena are related to: 1) the further integration into the extensive network of European music universities; 2) experience exchange not only at the level of teaching methods, but also through the introduction of exchange programs with students from leading conservatories of different countries worldwide; 3) the creation of the conditions for the training of a certain unification specialists according to the existing genre and stylistic directions of performance on chromatic button accordion; 4) the orientation on the implementation of all the advanced instruments constructive capabilities (sound production and strokes) and timbral coloring; 5) the search for forms of the chromatic button accordion (as an academic instrument) creative synthesis: from established forms of ensembles (such as strings or wind) to modern theatrical, vocal and dance performances, music and light show.

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Abstract Introduction Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. According to the World Health Organization data, they are responsible for approximately 31% of deaths annually. It is estimated that nearly 80% of premature CVDs are preventable by modification of lifestyle including regular physical activity. Endurance training can be described as long-time activity characterized by high dynamic and low to high power and was proven beneficial in CVD prevention. Several miRNAs, including miR-125a-5p had been reported to be regulated in response to exercise in healthy humans. Additionally, Let-7 family members are involved in initiation and development of inflammatory response and up-regulated after training. Aim of study Our aim was to determine the differences in inflammatory-related miRNA expression between ultramarathon runners and healthy controls. Materials and methods Three circulation inflammation-related miRNA related were chosen based on literature search. RNA was extracted from plasma samples using the mirVANA PARIS Kit and quality of extracted material was assessed using a fluorometric assay. RT-PCR was performed using the Taqman advance protocol on a high throughput thermal cycler. Mann Whitney U test was used for unpaired comparison and Spearman's Correlation was used for the database analysis with miRNA expressions, p&lt;0.05. Results Let-7e, miR-125a-5p, and miR-126 were measured in 40 patients (31 ultra-marathon runners vs 9 control volunteers) We found that control volunteers had significantly lower miR-125a-5p expression levels than ultra-marathon runners (p=0.03). Additionally, miR-125a-5p showed strong positive correlation with number of ultra-marathons run in life, and number of runs exceeding 100km (r=0.473, p=0.01 and r=0.403, p=0.03, respectively). Besides, Let-7e was positively correlated with VE max (maximum ventilation) (r=0.449, p=0.01). Conclusions Our study showed that endurance training can increase the miR-125a-5p expression and this result is in the line of previous observation since miR-125a-5p reported as vasculoprotector and were elevated in response to all-out high-intensity running. Figure 1. MicroRNAs expression comparison Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): “Preludium” from the National Science Center, Poland

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Abstract: In this study, the equations for estimating the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) at a 6-month lead-time in the Vietnam East Sea (VES) have been developed and tested. Three multivariate linear regression models in which regression coefficients were determined by different methods, including 1) method of least squares (MLR), 2) minimum absolute deviation method (LAD), 3) minimax method (LMV). The artificial neural network model (ANN) and some combinations of the above regression models were also used. The VES was divided into the northern region above 15ºN (VES_N15) and the southern one below that latitude (VES_S15). The number of TCs was calculated from the data of the Japan Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RMSC) for the period 1981-2017. Principal components of the 14 climate indicators were selected as predictors. Results for the training period showed that the ANN model performed best in all 12 times of forecasts, following by the ANN-MLR combination. The poorest result was obtained with the LMV model. Results for the independent dataset showed that the number of adequate forecasts based on the MSSS scores decreased sharply compared to the training period and the models generated generally similar errors. The MLR model tended to give out the best results. Better-forecast results were obtained in the VES_N15 region followed by the VES and then the VES_S15 regions. Keywords: Tropical cyclone, Seasonal prediction, Vietnam East Sea (VES). References: [1] W. Landsea Christopher, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray, Stanley B. Goldenberg, The extremely active 1995 Atlantic hurricane season: Environmental conditions and verification of seasonal forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev. 126 (1998) 1174-1193[2] W. Landsea Christopher, William M. Gray, Paul W. Mielke, Jr, Kenneth J. Berry, Seasonal Forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity, Weather. 49 (1994) 273-284.[3] M. Gray William, Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke, Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June, Weather and Forecasting. 9 (1994) 103-115.[4] Neville Nicholls, Chris Landsea, Jon Gill, Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 65 (1998) 197-205.[5] Elsner, James B., Kam-biu Liu, Bethany Kocher, Spatial Variations in Major U.S., Hurricane Activity: Statistics and a Physical Mechanism, J. Climate. 13 (2000) 2293–2305.[6] J. C. L. Chan, Jiuen Shi, Cheukman Lam, Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Departmentof Physics and Materials Science, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China, (1998).[7] J. C. L. Chan, J. E. Shi and C. M. Lam, Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea, Wea. Forecasting. 13 (1998) 997-1004.[8] J. C. L. Chan, Tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events, J. Climate. 13 (2000) 2960-2972.[9] Pao-Shin Chu, Xin Zhao, Chang-Hoi Ho, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Mong-Ming Lu, Joo-Hong Kim, Bayesian forecasting of seasonal typhoon activity: A track-pattern oriented categorization approach, J.Climate. 23 (2010) 6654-6668[10] M. Lu, P.-S. Chu, and Y.-C. Lin, Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity near Taiwan using the Bayesian multivariate regression method, Wea. Forecasting. 25 (2010) 1780–1795.[11] H. J Kwon, W.-J. Lee, S.-H.Won, and E.-J. Cha, Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific.Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 (2007) L24805. doi:10.1029/2007GL032308[12] J. C. L. Chan, Tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation, Mon. Wea. Rev. 123 (1995) 2567-2571.[13] J. C. L. Chan, Prediction of annual tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea, Int’l J. Climatol. 15 (1995) 1011-1019.[14] J. C. L. Chan, J. E. Shi and C. M. Lam, Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea, Wea.Forecasting. 13 (1998) 997-1004.[15] J.C.L. Chan, J.E. Shi, K.S. Liu, 2001: Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 491-498.[16] J. Klotzbach Philip, Recent developments in statistical prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity, Journal compilation C (2007) Blackwell Munksgaard. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00239.x[17] W. Zhang, Y. Zhang, D. Zheng, F. Wang, and L. Xu, Relationship between lightning activity and tropical cyclone intensity over the northwest Pacific, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120 (2015). doi:10.1002/2014JD022334.[18] Phan Van Tan, On the tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific basin and South China sea in relationship with ENSO, Journal of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, t.XVIII, No1, (2002) 51-58. (In English)[19] Nguyễn Văn Tuyên, Xu hướng hoạt động của xoáy thuận nhiệt đới trên Tây Bắc Thái Bình Dương và biển Đông theo các cách phân loại khác nhau, Tạp chí KTTV. số 559 (2007) tr.4-10.[20] Đinh Bá Duy, Ngô Đức Thành; Phan Văn Tân, 2016, Mối quan hệ giữa ENSO và số lượng, cấp độ Xoáy thuận Nhiệt đới trên khu vực Tây Bắc - Thái Bình Dương, Biển Đông giai đoạn 1951-2015, VNU Journal of Science: Earth and Environmental Sciences, [S.l.], v. 32, n. 3S, sep. (2016) ISSN 2588-1094.[21] Đinh Bá Duy, Ngô Đức Thành, Nguyễn Thị Tuyết, Phạm Thanh Hà, Phan Văn Tân, Đặc điểm hoạt động của Xoáy thuận Nhiệt đới trên khu vực Tây Bắc Thái Bình Dương, Biển Đông và vùng trực tiếp chịu ảnh hưởng trên lãnh thổ Việt Nam giai đoạn 1978-2015, VNU Journal of Science: Earth and Environmental Sciences, [S.l.], v. 32, n. 2, (2016) ISSN 2588-1094.[22] Đinh Văn Ưu, Đánh giá quy luật biến động dài hạn và xu thế biến đổi số lượng bão và áp thấp nhiệt đới trên khu vực Tây Thái Bình Dương, Biển Đông và ven biển Việt Nam, Tạp chí Khoa học ĐHQGHN, Khoa học Tự nhiên và Công nghệ. 25 3S, (2009) 542-550.[23] Nguyễn Văn Hiệp và nnk, Đặc điểm hoạt động của bão ở Tây Bắc Thái Bình Dương và Biển Đông qua số liệu Ibtracs, Tuyển tập báo cáo tại Hội thảo khoa học năm 2016 của Viện Khoa học KTTV & BĐKH, (2006) tr. 9-14.[24] Vũ Thanh Hằng, Ngô Thị Thanh Hương,, Phan Văn Tân, Đặc điểm hoạt động của bão ở vùng biển gần bờ Việt Nam giai đoạn 1945-2007, Tạp chí Khoa học ĐHQGHN, Khoa học Tự nhiên và Công nghệ 26, Số 3S, pp 344‐353, 2010[25] Nguyễn Văn Tuyên, Khả năng dự báo hoạt động mùa bão biển Đông Việt Nam: Phân tích các yếu tố dự báo và nhân tố dự báo có thể (Phần I), Tạp chí KTTV, (số 568) tháng 4 năm 2008, tr.1-8.[26] Nguyễn Văn Tuyên, 2008: Khả năng dự báo hoạt động mùa bão biển Đông Việt Nam: Phân tích các yếu tố dự báo và nhân tố dự báo có thể (Phần II). Tạp chí KTTV, số 571, tháng 7 năm 2008, tr.1-11.[27] Phan Văn Tân, 2009-2010, Nghiên cứu tác động của biến đổi khí hậu toàn cầu đến các yếu tố và hiện tượng khí hậu cực đoan ở Việt Nam, khả năng dự báo và giải pháp chiến lược ứng phó. Đề tài cấp Nhà nước, mã số KC08.29/06-10.[28] https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html. [29] https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/ psd/data/climateindices/ list/[30] T. Ngo-Duc, J. Matsumoto, H. Kamimera, and H.H. Bui, Monthly adjustment of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data over the VuGia–ThuBon River Basin in Central Vietnam using an artificial neural network. Hydrological Research Letters. 7(4), (2013) 85-90. doi:10.3178/hrl.7.85.[31] J. C. L. Chan, J. E. Shi and C. M. Lam, Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea, Wea. Forecasting. 13 (1998) 997-1004.[32] E. S. Blake, W. M. Gray, Prediction of August Atlantic Basin Hurricane Activity. Wea. Forecasting. 19 (2004) 1044-1060.[33] P. J. Klotzbachi, W. M. Gray, Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal Hurricane activity and U. S. landfall strike probability for 2008, (2007) http://hurricane.atmos. colostate.edu/Forecasts.

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Introduction Cookbooks are an exceptional written record of what is largely an oral tradition. They have been described as “magician’s hats” due to their ability to reveal much more than they seem to contain (Wheaton, “Finding”). The first book printed in Germany was the Guttenberg Bible in 1456 but, by 1490, printing was introduced into almost every European country (Tierney). The spread of literacy between 1500 and 1800, and the rise in silent reading, helped to create a new private sphere into which the individual could retreat, seeking refuge from the community (Chartier). This new technology had its effects in the world of cookery as in so many spheres of culture (Mennell, All Manners). Trubek notes that cookbooks are the texts most often used by culinary historians, since they usually contain all the requisite materials for analysing a cuisine: ingredients, method, technique, and presentation. Printed cookbooks, beginning in the early modern period, provide culinary historians with sources of evidence of the culinary past. Historians have argued that social differences can be expressed by the way and type of food we consume. Cookbooks are now widely accepted as valid socio-cultural and historic documents (Folch, Sherman), and indeed the link between literacy levels and the protestant tradition has been expressed through the study of Danish cookbooks (Gold). From Apicius, Taillevent, La Varenne, and Menon to Bradley, Smith, Raffald, Acton, and Beeton, how can both manuscript and printed cookbooks be analysed as historic documents? What is the difference between a manuscript and a printed cookbook? Barbara Ketchum Wheaton, who has been studying cookbooks for over half a century and is honorary curator of the culinary collection in Harvard’s Schlesinger Library, has developed a methodology to read historic cookbooks using a structured approach. For a number of years she has been giving seminars to scholars from multidisciplinary fields on how to read historic cookbooks. This paper draws on the author’s experiences attending Wheaton’s seminar in Harvard, and on supervising the use of this methodology at both Masters and Doctoral level (Cashman; Mac Con Iomaire, and Cashman). Manuscripts versus Printed Cookbooks A fundamental difference exists between manuscript and printed cookbooks in their relationship with the public and private domain. Manuscript cookbooks are by their very essence intimate, relatively unedited and written with an eye to private circulation. Culinary manuscripts follow the diurnal and annual tasks of the household. They contain recipes for cures and restoratives, recipes for cleansing products for the house and the body, as well as the expected recipes for cooking and preserving all manners of food. Whether manuscript or printed cookbook, the recipes contained within often act as a reminder of how laborious the production of food could be in the pre-industrialised world (White). Printed cookbooks draw oxygen from the very fact of being public. They assume a “literate population with sufficient discretionary income to invest in texts that commodify knowledge” (Folch). This process of commoditisation brings knowledge from the private to the public sphere. There exists a subset of cookbooks that straddle this divide, for example, Mrs. Rundell’s A New System of Domestic Cookery (1806), which brought to the public domain her distillation of a lifetime of domestic experience. Originally intended for her daughters alone, Rundell’s book was reprinted regularly during the nineteenth century with the last edition printed in 1893, when Mrs. Beeton had been enormously popular for over thirty years (Mac Con Iomaire, and Cashman). Barbara Ketchum Wheaton’s Structured Approach Cookbooks can be rewarding, surprising and illuminating when read carefully with due effort in understanding them as cultural artefacts. However, Wheaton notes that: “One may read a single old cookbook and find it immensely entertaining. One may read two and begin to find intriguing similarities and differences. When the third cookbook is read, one’s mind begins to blur, and one begins to sense the need for some sort of method in approaching these documents” (“Finding”). Following decades of studying cookbooks from both sides of the Atlantic and writing a seminal text on the French at table from 1300-1789 (Wheaton, Savouring the Past), this combined experience negotiating cookbooks as historical documents was codified, and a structured approach gradually articulated and shared within a week long seminar format. In studying any cookbook, regardless of era or country of origin, the text is broken down into five different groupings, to wit: ingredients; equipment or facilities; the meal; the book as a whole; and, finally, the worldview. A particular strength of Wheaton’s seminars is the multidisciplinary nature of the approaches of students who attend, which throws the study of cookbooks open to wide ranging techniques. Students with a purely scientific training unearth interesting patterns by developing databases of the frequency of ingredients or techniques, and cross referencing them with other books from similar or different timelines or geographical regions. Patterns are displayed in graphs or charts. Linguists offer their own unique lens to study cookbooks, whereas anthropologists and historians ask what these objects can tell us about how our ancestors lived and drew meaning from life. This process is continuously refined, and each grouping is discussed below. Ingredients The geographic origins of the ingredients are of interest, as is the seasonality and the cost of the foodstuffs within the scope of each cookbook, as well as the sensory quality both separately and combined within different recipes. In the medieval period, the use of spices and large joints of butchers meat and game were symbols of wealth and status. However, when the discovery of sea routes to the New World and to the Far East made spices more available and affordable to the middle classes, the upper classes spurned them. Evidence from culinary manuscripts in Georgian Ireland, for example, suggests that galangal was more easily available in Dublin during the eighteenth century than in the mid-twentieth century. A new aesthetic, articulated by La Varenne in his Le Cuisinier Francois (1651), heralded that food should taste of itself, and so exotic ingredients such as cinnamon, nutmeg, and ginger were replaced by the local bouquet garni, and stocks and sauces became the foundations of French haute cuisine (Mac Con Iomaire). Some combinations of flavours and ingredients were based on humoral physiology, a long held belief system based on the writings of Hippocrates and Galen, now discredited by modern scientific understanding. The four humors are blood, yellow bile, black bile, and phlegm. It was believed that each of these humors would wax and wane in the body, depending on diet and activity. Galen (131-201 AD) believed that warm food produced yellow bile and that cold food produced phlegm. It is difficult to fathom some combinations of ingredients or the manner of service without comprehending the contemporary context within they were consumeSome ingredients found in Roman cookbooks, such as “garum” or “silphium” are no longer available. It is suggested that the nearest substitute for garum also known as “liquamen”—a fermented fish sauce—would be Naam Plaa, or Thai fish sauce (Grainger). Ingredients such as tea and white bread, moved from the prerogative of the wealthy over time to become the staple of the urban poor. These ingredients, therefore, symbolise radically differing contexts during the seventeenth century than in the early twentieth century. Indeed, there are other ingredients such as hominy (dried maize kernel treated with alkali) or grahams (crackers made from graham flour) found in American cookbooks that require translation to the unacquainted non-American reader. There has been a growing number of food encyclopaedias published in recent years that assist scholars in identifying such commodities (Smith, Katz, Davidson). The Cook’s Workplace, Techniques, and Equipment It is important to be aware of the type of kitchen equipment used, the management of heat and cold within the kitchen, and also the gradual spread of the industrial revolution into the domestic sphere. Visits to historic castles such as Hampton Court Palace where nowadays archaeologists re-enact life below stairs in Tudor times give a glimpse as to how difficult and labour intensive food production was. Meat was spit-roasted in front of huge fires by spit boys. Forcemeats and purees were manually pulped using mortar and pestles. Various technological developments including spit-dogs, and mechanised pulleys, replaced the spit boys, the most up to date being the mechanised rotisserie. The technological advancements of two hundred years can be seen in the Royal Pavilion in Brighton where Marie-Antoinin Carême worked for the Prince Regent in 1816 (Brighton Pavilion), but despite the gleaming copper pans and high ceilings for ventilation, the work was still back breaking. Carême died aged forty-nine, “burnt out by the flame of his genius and the fumes of his ovens” (Ackerman 90). Mennell points out that his fame outlived him, resting on his books: Le Pâtissier Royal Parisien (1815); Le Pâtissier Pittoresque (1815); Le Maître d’Hôtel Français (1822); Le Cuisinier Parisien (1828); and, finally, L’Art de la Cuisine Française au Dix-Neuvième Siècle (1833–5), which was finished posthumously by his student Pluméry (All Manners). Mennell suggests that these books embody the first paradigm of professional French cuisine (in Kuhn’s terminology), pointing out that “no previous work had so comprehensively codified the field nor established its dominance as a point of reference for the whole profession in the way that Carême did” (All Manners 149). The most dramatic technological changes came after the industrial revolution. Although there were built up ovens available in bakeries and in large Norman households, the period of general acceptance of new cooking equipment that enclosed fire (such as the Aga stove) is from c.1860 to 1910, with gas ovens following in c.1910 to the 1920s) and Electricity from c.1930. New food processing techniques dates are as follows: canning (1860s), cooling and freezing (1880s), freeze drying (1950s), and motorised delivery vans with cooking (1920s–1950s) (den Hartog). It must also be noted that the supply of fresh food, and fish particularly, radically improved following the birth, and expansion of, the railways. To understand the context of the cookbook, one needs to be aware of the limits of the technology available to the users of those cookbooks. For many lower to middle class families during the twentieth century, the first cookbook they would possess came with their gas or electrical oven. Meals One can follow cooked dishes from the kitchen to the eating place, observing food presentation, carving, sequencing, and serving of the meal and table etiquette. Meal times and structure changed over time. During the Middle Ages, people usually ate two meals a day: a substantial dinner around noon and a light supper in the evening (Adamson). Some of the most important factors to consider are the manner in which meals were served: either à la française or à la russe. One of the main changes that occurred during the nineteenth century was the slow but gradual transfer from service à la française to service à la russe. From medieval times to the middle of the nineteenth century the structure of a formal meal was not by “courses”—as the term is now understood—but by “services”. Each service could comprise of a choice of dishes—both sweet and savoury—from which each guest could select what appealed to him or her most (Davidson). The philosophy behind this form of service was the forementioned humoral physiology— where each diner chose food based on the four humours of blood, yellow bile, black bile, or phlegm. Also known as le grand couvert, the à la française method made it impossible for the diners to eat anything that was beyond arm’s length (Blake, and Crewe). Smooth service, however, was the key to an effective à la russe dinner since servants controlled the flow of food (Eatwell). The taste and temperature of food took centre stage with the à la russe dinner as each course came in sequence. Many historic cookbooks offer table plans illustrating the suggested arrangement of dishes on a table for the à la française style of service. Many of these dishes might be re-used in later meals, and some dishes such as hashes and rissoles often utilised left over components of previous meals. There is a whole genre of cookbooks informing the middle class cooks how to be frugal and also how to emulate haute cuisine using cheaper or ersatz ingredients. The number dining and the manner in which they dined also changed dramatically over time. From medieval to Tudor times, there might be hundreds dining in large banqueting halls. By the Elizabethan age, a small intimate room where master and family dined alone replaced the old dining hall where master, servants, guests, and travellers had previously dined together (Spencer). Dining tables remained portable until the 1780s when tables with removable leaves were devised. By this time, the bread trencher had been replaced by one made of wood, or plate of pewter or precious metal in wealthier houses. Hosts began providing knives and spoons for their guests by the seventeenth century, with forks also appearing but not fully accepted until the eighteenth century (Mason). These silver utensils were usually marked with the owner’s initials to prevent their theft (Flandrin). Cookbooks as Objects and the World of Publishing A thorough examination of the manuscript or printed cookbook can reveal their physical qualities, including indications of post-publication history, the recipes and other matter in them, as well as the language, organization, and other individual qualities. What can the quality of the paper tell us about the book? Is there a frontispiece? Is the book dedicated to an employer or a patron? Does the author note previous employment history in the introduction? In his Court Cookery, Robert Smith, for example, not only mentions a number of his previous employers, but also outlines that he was eight years working with Patrick Lamb in the Court of King William, before revealing that several dishes published in Lamb’s Royal Cookery (1710) “were never made or practis’d (sic) by him and others are extreme defective and imperfect and made up of dishes unknown to him; and several of them more calculated at the purses than the Gôut of the guests”. Both Lamb and Smith worked for the English monarchy, nobility, and gentry, but produced French cuisine. Not all Britons were enamoured with France, however, with, for example Hannah Glasse asserting “if gentlemen will have French cooks, they must pay for French tricks” (4), and “So much is the blind folly of this age, that they would rather be imposed on by a French Booby, than give encouragement to an good English cook” (ctd. in Trubek 60). Spencer contextualises Glasse’s culinary Francophobia, explaining that whilst she was writing the book, the Jacobite army were only a few days march from London, threatening to cut short the Hanoverian lineage. However, Lehmann points out that whilst Glasse was overtly hostile to French cuisine, she simultaneously plagiarised its receipts. Based on this trickling down of French influences, Mennell argues that “there is really no such thing as a pure-bred English cookery book” (All Manners 98), but that within the assimilation and simplification, a recognisable English style was discernable. Mennell also asserts that Glasse and her fellow women writers had an enormous role in the social history of cooking despite their lack of technical originality (“Plagiarism”). It is also important to consider the place of cookbooks within the history of publishing. Albala provides an overview of the immense outpouring of dietary literature from the printing presses from the 1470s. He divides the Renaissance into three periods: Period I Courtly Dietaries (1470–1530)—targeted at the courtiers with advice to those attending banquets with many courses and lots of wine; Period II The Galenic Revival (1530–1570)—with a deeper appreciation, and sometimes adulation, of Galen, and when scholarship took centre stage over practical use. Finally Period III The Breakdown of Orthodoxy (1570–1650)—when, due to the ambiguities and disagreements within and between authoritative texts, authors were freer to pick the ideas that best suited their own. Nutrition guides were consistent bestsellers, and ranged from small handbooks written in the vernacular for lay audiences, to massive Latin tomes intended for practicing physicians. Albala adds that “anyone with an interest in food appears to have felt qualified to pen his own nutritional guide” (1). Would we have heard about Mrs. Beeton if her husband had not been a publisher? How could a twenty-five year old amass such a wealth of experience in household management? What role has plagiarism played in the history of cookbooks? It is interesting to note that a well worn copy of her book (Beeton) was found in the studio of Francis Bacon and it is suggested that he drew inspiration for a number of his paintings from the colour plates of animal carcasses and butcher’s meat (Dawson). Analysing the post-publication usage of cookbooks is valuable to see the most popular recipes, the annotations left by the owner(s) or user(s), and also if any letters, handwritten recipes, or newspaper clippings are stored within the leaves of the cookbook. The Reader, the Cook, the Eater The physical and inner lives and needs and skills of the individuals who used cookbooks and who ate their meals merit consideration. Books by their nature imply literacy. Who is the book’s audience? Is it the cook or is it the lady of the house who will dictate instructions to the cook? Numeracy and measurement is also important. Where clocks or pocket watches were not widely available, authors such as seventeenth century recipe writer Sir Kenelm Digby would time his cooking by the recitation of the Lord’s Prayer. Literacy amongst protestant women to enable them to read the Bible, also enabled them to read cookbooks (Gold). How did the reader or eater’s religion affect the food practices? Were there fast days? Were there substitute foods for fast days? What about special occasions? Do historic cookbooks only tell us about the food of the middle and upper classes? It is widely accepted today that certain cookbook authors appeal to confident cooks, while others appeal to competent cooks, and others still to more cautious cooks (Bilton). This has always been the case, as has the differentiation between the cookbook aimed at the professional cook rather than the amateur. Historically, male cookbook authors such as Patrick Lamb (1650–1709) and Robert Smith targeted the professional cook market and the nobility and gentry, whereas female authors such as Eliza Acton (1799–1859) and Isabella Beeton (1836–1865) often targeted the middle class market that aspired to emulate their superiors’ fashions in food and dining. How about Tavern or Restaurant cooks? When did they start to put pen to paper, and did what they wrote reflect the food they produced in public eateries? Conclusions This paper has offered an overview of Barbara Ketchum Wheaton’s methodology for reading historic cookbooks using a structured approach. It has highlighted some of the questions scholars and researchers might ask when faced with an old cookbook, regardless of era or geographical location. By systematically examining the book under the headings of ingredients; the cook’s workplace, techniques and equipment; the meals; cookbooks as objects and the world of publishing; and reader, cook and eater, the scholar can perform magic and extract much more from the cookbook than seems to be there on first appearance. References Ackerman, Roy. The Chef's Apprentice. London: Headline, 1988. Adamson, Melitta Weiss. Food in Medieval Times. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood P, 2004. Albala, Ken. Eating Right in the Renaissance. Ed. Darra Goldstein. Berkeley: U of California P, 2002. Beeton, Isabella. Beeton's Book of Household Management. London: S. Beeton, 1861. Bilton, Samantha. “The Influence of Cookbooks on Domestic Cooks, 1900-2010.” Petit Propos Culinaires 94 (2011): 30–7. Blake, Anthony, and Quentin Crewe. Great Chefs of France. London: Mitchell Beazley/ Artists House, 1978. Brighton Pavilion. 12 Jun. 2013 ‹http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/interactive/2011/sep/09/brighton-pavilion-360-interactive-panoramic›. Cashman, Dorothy. “An Exploratory Study of Irish Cookbooks.” Unpublished Master's Thesis. M.Sc. Dublin: Dublin Institute of Technology, 2009. Chartier, Roger. “The Practical Impact of Writing.” Trans. Arthur Goldhammer. A History of Private Lives: Volume III: Passions of the Renaissance. Ed. Roger Chartier. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Belknap P of Harvard U, 1989. 111-59. Davidson, Alan. The Oxford Companion to Food. New York: Oxford U P, 1999. Dawson, Barbara. “Francis Bacon and the Art of Food.” The Irish Times 6 April 2013. den Hartog, Adel P. “Technological Innovations and Eating out as a Mass Phenomenon in Europe: A Preamble.” Eating out in Europe: Picnics, Gourmet Dining and Snacks since the Late Eighteenth Century. Eds. Mark Jacobs and Peter Scholliers. Oxford: Berg, 2003. 263–80. Eatwell, Ann. “Á La Française to À La Russe, 1680-1930.” Elegant Eating: Four Hundred Years of Dining in Style. Eds. Philippa Glanville and Hilary Young. London: V&A, 2002. 48–52. Flandrin, Jean-Louis. “Distinction through Taste.” Trans. Arthur Goldhammer. A History of Private Lives: Volume III : Passions of the Renaissance. Ed. Roger Chartier. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Belknap P of Harvard U, 1989. 265–307. Folch, Christine. “Fine Dining: Race in Pre-revolution Cuban Cookbooks.” Latin American Research Review 43.2 (2008): 205–23. Glasse, Hannah. The Art of Cookery Made Plain and Easy; Which Far Exceeds Anything of the Kind Ever Published. 4th Ed. London: The Author, 1745. Gold, Carol. Danish Cookbooks: Domesticity and National Identity, 1616-1901. Seattle: U of Washington P, 2007. Grainger, Sally. Cooking Apicius: Roman Recipes for Today. Totnes, Devon: Prospect, 2006. Hampton Court Palace. “The Tudor Kitchens.” 12 Jun 2013 ‹http://www.hrp.org.uk/HamptonCourtPalace/stories/thetudorkitchens› Katz, Solomon H. Ed. Encyclopedia of Food and Culture (3 Vols). New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 2003. Kuhn, T. S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: U of Chicago P, 1962. Lamb, Patrick. Royal Cookery:Or. The Complete Court-Cook. London: Abel Roper, 1710. Lehmann, Gilly. “English Cookery Books in the 18th Century.” The Oxford Companion to Food. Ed. Alan Davidson. Oxford: Oxford U P, 1999. 277–9. Mac Con Iomaire, Máirtín. “The Changing Geography and Fortunes of Dublin’s Haute Cuisine Restaurants 1958–2008.” Food, Culture & Society 14.4 (2011): 525–45. Mac Con Iomaire, Máirtín, and Dorothy Cashman. “Irish Culinary Manuscripts and Printed Cookbooks: A Discussion.” Petit Propos Culinaires 94 (2011): 81–101. Mason, Laura. Food Culture in Great Britain. Ed. Ken Albala. Westport CT.: Greenwood P, 2004. Mennell, Stephen. All Manners of Food. 2nd ed. Chicago: U of Illinois P, 1996. ---. “Plagiarism and Originality: Diffusionism in the Study of the History of Cookery.” Petit* Propos Culinaires 68 (2001): 29–38. Sherman, Sandra. “‘The Whole Art and Mystery of Cooking’: What Cookbooks Taught Readers in the Eighteenth Century.” Eighteenth Century Life 28.1 (2004): 115–35. Smith, Andrew F. Ed. The Oxford Companion to American Food and Drink. New York: Oxford U P, 2007. Spencer, Colin. British Food: An Extraordinary Thousand Years of History. London: Grub Street, 2004. Tierney, Mark. Europe and the World 1300-1763. Dublin: Gill and Macmillan, 1970. Trubek, Amy B. Haute Cuisine: How the French Invented the Culinary Profession. Philadelphia: U of Pennsylvania P, 2000. Wheaton, Barbara. “Finding Real Life in Cookbooks: The Adventures of a Culinary Historian”. 2006. Humanities Research Group Working Paper. 9 Sep. 2009 ‹http://www.phaenex.uwindsor.ca/ojs/leddy/index.php/HRG/article/view/22/27›. Wheaton, Barbara Ketcham. Savouring the Past: The French Kitchen and Table from 1300-1789. London: Chatto & Windus, 1983. White, Eileen, ed. The English Cookery Book: Historical Essays. Proceedings of the 16th Leeds Symposium on Food History 2001. Devon: Prospect, 2001.

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Image 1: “Oklahoma State Highway Re-imagined.” CC BY-SA 4.0 2015 by author, using Wikimedia image by Ks0stm (CC BY-SA 3 2013). Introduction This article is divided in three major parts. First a scenario, second its context, and third, an analysis. The text draws on ethnographic research on security practices in the United States among police and parts of the intelligence community from 2006 through to the beginning of 2014. Real names are used when the material is drawn from archival sources, while individuals who were interviewed during fieldwork are referred to by their position rank or title. For matters of fact not otherwise referenced, see the sources compiled on “The Complete 911 Timeline” at History Commons. First, a scenario. Oklahoma, 2001 It is 1 April 2001, in far western Oklahoma, warm beneath the late afternoon sun. Highway Patrol Trooper C.L. Parkins is about 80 kilometres from the border of Texas, watching trucks and cars speed along Interstate 40. The speed limit is around 110 kilometres per hour, and just then, his radar clocks a blue Toyota Corolla going 135 kph. The driver is not wearing a seatbelt. Trooper Parkins swung in behind the vehicle, and after a while signalled that the car should pull over. The driver was dark-haired and short; in Parkins’s memory, he spoke English without any problem. He asked the man to come sit in the patrol car while he did a series of routine checks—to see if the vehicle was stolen, if there were warrants out for his arrest, if his license was valid. Parkins said, “I visited with him a little bit but I just barely remember even having him in my car. You stop so many people that if […] you don't arrest them or anything […] you don't remember too much after a couple months” (Clay and Ellis). Nawaf Al Hazmi had a valid California driver’s license, with an address in San Diego, and the car’s registration had been legally transferred to him by his former roommate. Parkins’s inquiries to the National Crime Information Center returned no warnings, nor did anything seem odd in their interaction. So the officer wrote Al Hazmi two tickets totalling $138, one for speeding and one for failure to use a seat belt, and told him to be on his way. Al Hazmi, for his part, was crossing the country to a new apartment in a Virginia suburb of Washington, DC, and upon arrival he mailed the payment for his tickets to the county court clerk in Oklahoma. Over the next five months, he lived several places on the East Coast: going to the gym, making routine purchases, and taking a few trips that included Las Vegas and Florida. He had a couple more encounters with local law enforcement and these too were unremarkable. On 1 May 2001 he was mugged, and promptly notified the police, who documented the incident with his name and local address (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 139). At the end of June, having moved to New Jersey, he was involved in a minor traffic accident on the George Washington Bridge, and officers again recorded his real name and details of the incident. In July, Khalid Al Mihdhar, the previous owner of the car, returned from abroad, and joined Al Hazmi in New Jersey. The two were boyhood friends, and they went together to a library several times to look up travel information, and then, with Al Hazmi’s younger brother Selem, to book their final flight. On 11 September, the three boarded American Airlines flight 77 as part of the Al Qaeda team that flew the mid-sized jet into the west façade of the Pentagon. They died along with the piloting hijacker, all the passengers, and 125 people on the ground. Theirs was one of four airplanes hijacked that day, one of which was crashed by passengers, the others into significant sites of American power, by men who had been living for varying lengths of time all but unnoticed in the United States. No one thought that Trooper Parkins, or the other officers with whom the 9/11 hijackers crossed paths, should have acted differently. The Commissioner of the Oklahoma Department of Public Safety himself commented that the trooper “did the right thing” at that April traffic stop. And yet, interviewed by a local newspaper in January of 2002, Parkins mused to the reporter “it's difficult sometimes to think back and go: 'What if you had known something else?'" (Clay and Ellis). Missed Opportunities Image 2: “Hijackers Timeline (Redacted).” CC BY-SA 4.0 2015 by author, using the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)’s “Working Draft Chronology of Events for Hijackers and Associates”. In fact, several of the men who would become the 9/11 hijackers were stopped for minor traffic violations. Mohamed Atta, usually pointed to as the ringleader, was given a citation in Florida that spring of 2001 for driving without a license. When he missed his court date, a bench warrant was issued (Wall Street Journal). Perhaps the warrant was not flagged properly, however, since nothing happened when he was pulled over again, for speeding. In the government inquiries that followed attack, and in the press, these brushes with the law were “missed opportunities” to thwart the 9/11 plot (Kean and Hamilton, Report 353). Among a certain set of career law enforcement personnel, particularly those active in management and police associations, these missed opportunities were fraught with a sense of personal failure. Yet, in short order, they were to become a source of professional revelation. The scenarios—Trooper Parkins and Al Hazmi, other encounters in other states, the general fact that there had been chance meetings between police officers and the hijackers—were re-imagined in the aftermath of 9/11. Those moments were returned to and reversed, so that multiple potentialities could be seen, beyond or in addition to what had taken place. The deputy director of an intelligence fusion centre told me in an interview, “it is always a local cop who saw something” and he replayed how the incidents of contact had unfolded with the men. These scenarios offered a way to recapture the past. In the uncertainty of every encounter, whether a traffic stop or questioning someone taking photos of a landmark (and potential terrorist target), was also potential. Through a process of re-imagining, police encounters with the public became part of the government’s “national intelligence” strategy. Previously a division had been marked between foreign and domestic intelligence. While the phrase “national intelligence” had long been used, notably in National Intelligence Estimates, after 9/11 it became more significant. The overall director of the US intelligence community became the Director National Intelligence, for instance, and the cohesive term marked the way that increasingly diverse institutional components, types of data and forms of action were evolving to address the collection of data and intelligence production (McConnell). In a series of working groups mobilised by members of major police professional organisations, and funded by the US Department of Justice, career officers and representatives from federal agencies produced detailed recommendations and plans for involving police in the new Information Sharing Environment. Among the plans drawn up during this period was what would eventually come to be the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative, built principally around the idea of encounters such as the one between Parkins and Al Hazmi. Map 1: Map of pilot sites in the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting Evaluation Environment in 2010 (courtesy of the author; no longer available online). Map 2: Map of participating sites in the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative, as of 2014. In an interview, a fusion centre director who participated in this planning as well as its implementation, told me that his thought had been, “if we train state and local cops to understand pre-terrorism indicators, if we train them to be more curious, and to question more what they see,” this could feed into “a system where they could actually get that information to somebody where it matters.” In devising the reporting initiative, the working groups counter-actualised the scenarios of those encounters, and the kinds of larger plots to which they were understood to belong, in order to extract a set of concepts: categories of suspicious “activities” or “patterns of behaviour” corresponding to the phases of a terrorism event in the process of becoming (Deleuze, Negotiations). This conceptualisation of terrorism was standardised, so that it could be taught, and applied, in discerning and documenting the incidents comprising an event’s phases. In police officer training, the various suspicious behaviours were called “terrorism precursor activities” and were divided between criminal and non-criminal. “Functional Standards,” developed by the Los Angeles Police Department and then tested by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), served to code the observed behaviours for sharing (via compatible communication protocols) up the federal hierarchy and also horizontally between states and regions. In the popular parlance of videos made for the public by local police departments and DHS, which would come to populate the internet within a few years, these categories were “signs of terrorism,” more specifically: surveillance, eliciting information, testing security, and so on. Image 3: “The Seven Signs of Terrorism (sometimes eight).” CC BY-SA 4.0 2015 by author, using materials in the public domain. If the problem of 9/11 had been that the men who would become hijackers had gone unnoticed, the basic idea of the Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative was to create a mechanism through which the eyes and ears of everyone could contribute to their detection. In this vein, “If You See Something, Say Something™” was a campaign that originated with the New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority, and was then licensed for use to DHS. The tips and leads such campaigns generated, together with the reports from officers on suspicious incidents that might have to do with terrorism, were coordinated in the Information Sharing Environment. Drawing on reports thus generated, the Federal Government would, in theory, communicate timely information on security threats to law enforcement so that they would be better able to discern the incidents to be reported. The cycle aimed to catch events in emergence, in a distinctively anticipatory strategy of counterterrorism (Stalcup). Re-imagination A curious fact emerges from this history, and it is key to understanding how this initiative developed. That is, there was nothing suspicious in the encounters. The soon-to-be terrorists’ licenses were up-to-date, the cars were legal, they were not nervous. Even Mohamed Atta’s warrant would have resulted in nothing more than a fine. It is not self-evident, given these facts, how a governmental technology came to be designed from these scenarios. How––if nothing seemed of immediate concern, if there had been nothing suspicious to discern––did an intelligence strategy come to be assembled around such encounters? Evidently, strident demands were made after the events of 9/11 to know, “what went wrong?” Policies were crafted and implemented according to the answers given: it was too easy to obtain identification, or to enter and stay in the country, or to buy airplane tickets and fly. But the trooper’s question, the reader will recall, was somewhat different. He had said, “It’s difficult sometimes to think back and go: ‘What if you had known something else?’” To ask “what if you had known something else?” is also to ask what else might have been. Janet Roitman shows that identifying a crisis tends to implicate precisely the question of what went wrong. Crisis, and its critique, take up history as a series of right and wrong turns, bad choices made between existing dichotomies (90): liberty-security, security-privacy, ordinary-suspicious. It is to say, what were the possibilities and how could we have selected the correct one? Such questions seek to retrospectively uncover latencies—systemic or structural, human error or a moral lapse (71)—but they ask of those latencies what false understanding of the enemy, of threat, of priorities, allowed a terrible thing to happen. “What if…?” instead turns to the virtuality hidden in history, through which missed opportunities can be re-imagined. Image 4: “The Cholmondeley Sisters and Their Swaddled Babies.” Anonymous, c. 1600-1610 (British School, 17th century); Deleuze and Parnet (150). CC BY-SA 4.0 2015 by author, using materials in the public domain. Gilles Deleuze, speaking with Claire Parnet, says, “memory is not an actual image which forms after the object has been perceived, but a virtual image coexisting with the actual perception of the object” (150). Re-imagined scenarios take up the potential of memory, so that as the trooper’s traffic stop was revisited, it also became a way of imagining what else might have been. As Immanuel Kant, among others, points out, “the productive power of imagination is […] not exactly creative, for it is not capable of producing a sense representation that was never given to our faculty of sense; one can always furnish evidence of the material of its ideas” (61). The “memory” of these encounters provided the material for re-imagining them, and thereby re-virtualising history. This was different than other governmental responses, such as examining past events in order to assess the probable risk of their repetition, or drawing on past events to imagine future scenarios, for use in exercises that identify vulnerabilities and remedy deficiencies (Anderson). Re-imagining scenarios of police-hijacker encounters through the question of “what if?” evoked what Erin Manning calls “a certain array of recognizable elastic points” (39), through which options for other movements were invented. The Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative’s architects instrumentalised such moments as they designed new governmental entities and programs to anticipate terrorism. For each element of the encounter, an aspect of the initiative was developed: training, functional standards, a way to (hypothetically) get real-time information about threats. Suspicion was identified as a key affect, one which, if cultivated, could offer a way to effectively deal not with binary right or wrong possibilities, but with the potential which lies nestled in uncertainty. The “signs of terrorism” (that is, categories of “terrorism precursor activities”) served to maximise receptivity to encounters. Indeed, it can apparently create an oversensitivity, manifested, for example, in police surveillance of innocent people exercising their right to assemble (Madigan), or the confiscation of photographers’s equipment (Simon). “What went wrong?” and “what if?” were different interrogations of the same pre-9/11 incidents. The questions are of course intimately related. Moments where something went wrong are when one is likely to ask, what else might have been known? Moreover, what else might have been? The answers to each question informed and shaped the other, as re-imagined scenarios became the means of extracting categories of suspicious activities and patterns of behaviour that comprise the phases of an event in becoming. Conclusion The 9/11 Commission, after two years of investigation into the causes of the disastrous day, reported that “the most important failure was one of imagination” (Kean and Hamilton, Summary). The iconic images of 9/11––such as airplanes being flown into symbols of American power––already existed, in guises ranging from fictive thrillers to the infamous FBI field memo sent to headquarters on Arab men learning to fly, but not land. In 1974 there had already been an actual (failed) attempt to steal a plane and kill the president by crashing it into the White House (Kean and Hamilton, Report Ch11 n21). The threats had been imagined, as Pat O’Malley and Philip Bougen put it, but not how to govern them, and because the ways to address those threats had been not imagined, they were discounted as matters for intervention (29). O’Malley and Bougen argue that one effect of 9/11, and the general rise of incalculable insecurities, was to make it necessary for the “merely imaginable” to become governable. Images of threats from the mundane to the extreme had to be conjured, and then imagination applied again, to devise ways to render them amenable to calculation, minimisation or elimination. In the words of the 9/11 Commission, the Government must bureaucratise imagination. There is a sense in which this led to more of the same. Re-imagining the early encounters reinforced expectations for officers to do what they already do, that is, to be on the lookout for suspicious behaviours. Yet, the images of threat brought forth, in their mixing of memory and an elastic “almost,” generated their own momentum and distinctive demands. Existing capacities, such as suspicion, were re-shaped and elaborated into specific forms of security governance. The question of “what if?” and the scenarios of police-hijacker encounter were particularly potent equipment for this re-imagining of history and its re-virtualisation. References Anderson, Ben. “Preemption, Precaution, Preparedness: Anticipatory Action and Future Geographies.” Progress in Human Geography 34.6 (2010): 777-98. Clay, Nolan, and Randy Ellis. “Terrorist Ticketed Last Year on I-40.” NewsOK, 20 Jan. 2002. 25 Nov. 2014 ‹http://newsok.com/article/2779124›. Deleuze, Gilles. Negotiations. New York: Columbia UP, 1995. Deleuze, Gilles, and Claire Parnet. Dialogues II. New York: Columbia UP 2007 [1977]. Federal Bureau of Investigation. “Hijackers Timeline (Redacted) Part 01 of 02.” Working Draft Chronology of Events for Hijackers and Associates. 2003. 18 Apr. 2014 ‹https://vault.fbi.gov/9-11%20Commission%20Report/9-11-chronology-part-01-of-02›. Kant, Immanuel. Anthropology from a Pragmatic Point of View. Trans. Robert B. Louden. Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 2006. Kean, Thomas H., and Lee Hamilton. Executive Summary of the 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States. 25 Oct. 2015 ‹http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report_Exec.htm›. Kean, Thomas H., and Lee Hamilton. The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States. New York: W.W. Norton, 2004. McConnell, Mike. “Overhauling Intelligence.” Foreign Affairs, July/Aug. 2007. Madigan, Nick. “Spying Uncovered.” Baltimore Sun 18 Jul. 2008. 25 Oct. 2015 ‹http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-te.md.spy18jul18-story.html›. Manning, Erin. Relationscapes: Movement, Art, Philosophy. Cambridge, MA: MIT P, 2009. O’Malley, P., and P. Bougen. “Imaginable Insecurities: Imagination, Routinisation and the Government of Uncertainty post 9/11.” Imaginary Penalities. Ed. Pat Carlen. Cullompton, UK: Willan, 2008.Roitman, Janet. Anti-Crisis. Durham, NC: Duke UP, 2013. Simon, Stephanie. “Suspicious Encounters: Ordinary Preemption and the Securitization of Photography.” Security Dialogue 43.2 (2012): 157-73. Stalcup, Meg. “Policing Uncertainty: On Suspicious Activity Reporting.” Modes of Uncertainty: Anthropological Cases. Eds. Limor Saminian-Darash and Paul Rabinow. Chicago: U of Chicago P, 2015. 69-87. Wall Street Journal. “A Careful Sequence of Mundane Dealings Sows a Day of Bloody Terror for Hijackers.” 16 Oct. 2001.